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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–7 on winners spread MAE 11.2 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Grambling @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-7.8	155.4	24%	81–77	✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University	+2.9	130.4	61%	59–69	✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana	+8.9	135.7	79%	70–62	✗
Nicholls @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+2.3	152.7	58%	82–75	✗
South Alabama @ UL Monroe	-13.2	132.2	12%	66–77	✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State	+8.4	146.2	78%	72–62	✗
Iowa @ Ohio State	+9.0	165.3	79%	65–82	✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-6.5	144.9	28%	74–73	✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar	+5.0	130.7	67%	59–69	✓
Incarnate Word @ LSU New Orleans	-2.3	153.9	42%	74–58	✓
NC State @ Duke	+23.6	132.0	98%	64–74	✓
East Texas A&M @ Stephen F. Austin	+8.9	124.0	79%	72–79	✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State	+5.5	152.2	69%	80–69	✗
Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-24.5	132.0	1%	63–42	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M	-2.8	160.6	40%	82–98	✗
Towson @ Northeastern	+3.3	134.3	62%	75–65	✗
UCLA @ USC	-3.1	138.5	39%	82–76	✓
Iowa State @ Arizona	+0.7	155.8	52%	75–86	✓
St. John's @ Georgetown	-5.7	139.7	30%	66–41	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.