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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–10 on winners spread MAE 7.1 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kentucky @ Tennessee +8.0 147.2 77% 78–73 ✗
Wake Forest @ Louisville +11.9 138.6 86% 59–72 ✓
Rice @ South Florida +2.8 140.7 60% 64–69 ✓
Providence @ Seton Hall -4.2 132.1 35% 69–67 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia +9.5 131.7 81% 60–71 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ball State +5.4 148.9 69% 74–71 ✗
Toledo @ Ohio +5.6 166.1 70% 86–83 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +11.9 155.8 86% 80–89 ✓
Central Michigan @ Buffalo -6.6 144.7 27% 69–75 ✗
Bowling Green @ Kent State +12.2 133.4 87% 57–75 ✓
Akron @ Northern Illinois -18.2 155.7 5% 80–70 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Morehead State +5.4 137.6 69% 65–66 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan State +14.8 139.4 91% 51–73 ✓
UCF @ Kansas +15.7 154.4 92% 87–91 ✓
VCU @ Saint Louis -6.2 138.8 29% 69–78 ✗
Dayton @ St. Bonaventure +0.5 137.1 52% 53–75 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +1.8 152.5 57% 79–75 ✗
Marquette @ Butler -6.6 148.7 27% 78–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming +7.7 144.0 76% 72–83 ✓
Arizona State @ Colorado -1.7 140.9 44% 70–68 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +8.0 146.8 77% 68–71 ✓
Air Force @ Colorado State +16.4 133.7 93% 58–79 ✓
Baylor @ BYU +1.7 151.3 56% 89–93 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +9.0 144.3 79% 68–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh +4.7 161.9 67% 65–73 ✓
Cincinnati @ Utah -0.1 135.9 50% 66–69 ✗
San José State @ San Diego State +15.7 134.5 92% 68–71 ✓
Oregon State @ Gonzaga +10.8 158.0 84% 60–98 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate -1.9 157.0 43% 82–75 ✓
Colgate @ Army -1.8 146.7 43% 72–84 ✗
Samford @ Furman -1.2 152.7 46% 70–72 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +3.2 148.7 62% 65–72 ✓
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +7.3 158.1 75% 67–76 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +14.4 125.8 91% 78–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.