What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–10 on winners spread MAE 8.0 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ South Carolina -6.4 137.0 28% 72–68 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate -9.2 164.8 20% 92–85 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +6.0 136.4 71% 72–73 ✓
Tulsa @ Temple +12.1 154.5 87% 80–74 ✗
Louisville @ NC State -7.4 141.3 25% 91–66 ✓
Florida State @ Wake Forest +3.9 137.7 64% 72–70 ✗
Stanford @ Georgia Tech -0.9 149.2 47% 52–60 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Rhode Island +0.7 141.2 53% 64–68 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +13.6 147.7 89% 63–75 ✓
Dayton @ Fordham -7.1 153.7 26% 93–76 ✓
Davidson @ Massachusetts +0.4 152.4 51% 77–68 ✗
VCU @ George Washington -7.4 138.7 25% 80–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +9.9 146.8 82% 64–78 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 150.4 57% 64–60 ✗
Lehigh @ Navy +2.8 143.5 60% 60–63 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell +6.6 136.1 73% 60–76 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +4.0 140.4 64% 68–59 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +11.1 136.8 84% 54–80 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +7.3 152.3 75% 72–96 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel -12.9 136.4 12% 74–71 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern +2.1 143.3 58% 70–71 ✓
UTSA @ Wichita State +6.8 156.0 73% 64–69 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford +6.1 160.8 71% 82–68 ✗
Evansville @ Missouri State +4.4 131.1 66% 54–71 ✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso -3.4 166.3 38% 86–101 ✗
Xavier @ Providence -1.4 147.3 45% 91–82 ✓
Washington @ Ohio State +13.9 147.3 90% 69–93 ✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +16.3 149.3 93% 67–101 ✓
Troy @ Louisiana -10.3 135.6 17% 74–56 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas Tech +13.6 143.4 89% 106–111 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -5.8 144.4 30% 97–94 ✓
Drake @ Illinois State -3.1 127.6 39% 84–77 ✓
California @ Duke +25.2 143.7 99% 57–78 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +8.0 146.0 77% 58–70 ✓
Oklahoma @ Missouri +7.5 154.6 75% 58–82 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +17.2 144.6 94% 67–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook -1.5 144.4 44% 79–69 ✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington -0.5 150.2 48% 79–82 ✗
NJIT @ Bryant +18.1 147.1 95% 66–88 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +5.1 155.5 68% 77–81 ✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +5.9 157.0 70% 90–88 ✗
Queens University @ Bellarmine -8.8 152.6 21% 92–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.