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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–13 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
45 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn
@
Vanderbilt
|
-11.3 | 162.1 | 15% | 80–68 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Mississippi State
|
-4.1 | 154.2 | 36% | 81–68 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Kentucky
|
-2.3 | 146.6 | 42% | 64–75 | ✗ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+1.3 | 150.9 | 55% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
UCF
|
-8.5 | 161.2 | 22% | 77–65 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.8 | 136.6 | 73% | 75–85 | ✓ |
BYU
@
West Virginia
|
+2.3 | 139.2 | 58% | 73–69 | ✗ |
UAB
@
East Carolina
|
-1.0 | 158.2 | 46% | 75–82 | ✗ |
Syracuse
@
Miami
|
+0.1 | 164.2 | 50% | 84–91 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Richmond
|
-3.3 | 137.0 | 38% | 87–80 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Akron
|
+19.3 | 156.1 | 96% | 92–105 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
+6.1 | 162.1 | 71% | 80–92 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Bowling Green
|
-4.6 | 157.7 | 34% | 86–81 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Ball State
|
+6.4 | 150.8 | 72% | 84–86 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+7.5 | 127.2 | 75% | 83–91 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Northern Illinois
|
+1.5 | 150.8 | 55% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Arizona
@
Kansas State
|
-8.2 | 154.2 | 23% | 70–73 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
Saint Louis
|
-2.6 | 133.1 | 41% | 76–74 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+10.8 | 157.5 | 84% | 73–88 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Murray State
|
+1.9 | 152.3 | 57% | 53–63 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Illinois
|
+5.8 | 148.4 | 70% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Little Rock
|
+4.6 | 133.4 | 66% | 57–45 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Marquette
|
+16.9 | 149.1 | 94% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Texas
|
-2.8 | 166.7 | 40% | 103–80 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Texas A&M
|
+6.5 | 135.1 | 72% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Michigan State
|
+10.8 | 148.0 | 84% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Kansas
|
+17.8 | 141.6 | 95% | 59–71 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Creighton
|
+2.5 | 146.0 | 59% | 70–66 | ✗ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Pepperdine
|
-1.5 | 140.1 | 45% | 69–60 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Rice
|
-6.0 | 124.2 | 29% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
SMU
|
+2.7 | 156.9 | 60% | 63–83 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
USC
|
+2.0 | 153.9 | 57% | 67–92 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
UNLV
|
+14.1 | 131.8 | 90% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Utah State
|
+7.8 | 149.8 | 76% | 85–93 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
San José State
|
-7.9 | 135.9 | 24% | 69–66 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Oregon
|
+5.5 | 144.3 | 69% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Saint Mary's
|
+8.7 | 140.5 | 79% | 64–73 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Villanova
|
-1.9 | 143.8 | 43% | 71–73 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Holy Cross
|
+0.6 | 140.8 | 52% | 87–65 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
Western Carolina
|
-13.0 | 141.4 | 12% | 67–76 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Winthrop
|
+3.1 | 156.0 | 61% | 74–78 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Rutgers
|
+3.0 | 167.4 | 61% | 84–73 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-3.9 | 140.2 | 36% | 82–67 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Youngstown State
|
-1.6 | 157.4 | 44% | 71–93 | ✗ |
Canisius
@
Niagara
|
+9.5 | 141.5 | 81% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.