I know you're dissatisfied with your position and your place. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–13 on winners spread MAE 9.1 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Longwood @ High Point +9.2 156.3 80% 72–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +4.4 140.7 66% 74–79 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +2.6 134.5 59% 68–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +9.3 144.3 80% 49–91 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut +14.6 128.6 91% 63–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +11.5 124.4 85% 59–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +5.3 145.7 68% 46–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +5.1 149.1 68% 75–97 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -3.5 148.3 37% 77–72 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -8.0 123.6 23% 64–46 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +6.2 154.3 71% 66–86 ✓
Campbell @ Northeastern +0.9 138.9 53% 58–67 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Elon +13.5 148.2 89% 60–59 ✗
Delaware @ Towson +6.9 145.1 73% 70–75 ✓
Drexel @ Hampton -0.7 131.2 48% 58–63 ✗
Hofstra @ William & Mary +2.8 146.2 60% 60–61 ✓
North Florida @ North Alabama +11.8 171.1 86% 70–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky +13.7 153.8 89% 73–95 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -7.6 146.0 25% 72–60 ✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas -9.7 140.3 19% 77–62 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech +5.1 146.4 68% 69–47 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston -1.5 151.4 45% 61–66 ✗
Marshall @ South Alabama +6.2 135.0 71% 82–91 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay -4.7 135.9 34% 60–73 ✗
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -4.1 137.4 36% 59–75 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -12.3 136.2 13% 64–60 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota +2.5 159.2 59% 72–79 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +10.0 153.0 82% 85–98 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota +7.7 156.0 76% 68–64 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock +8.0 132.7 77% 75–79 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +23.3 144.5 98% 60–93 ✓
Maryland @ Nebraska -3.5 148.2 37% 83–75 ✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +4.7 142.8 66% 74–76 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois -1.2 137.8 46% 62–87 ✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +7.5 138.1 75% 76–71 ✗
Morehead State @ Lindenwood +1.2 134.1 54% 60–73 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -2.7 148.4 40% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ South Florida -11.3 153.3 15% 80–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +3.3 147.5 62% 68–81 ✓
Weber State @ Montana State +9.6 140.6 81% 66–74 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis -0.0 136.5 50% 74–75 ✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +15.9 157.3 93% 88–94 ✓
Liberty @ New Mexico State -4.9 130.9 33% 64–54 ✓
Florida International @ UTEP +10.3 140.9 83% 63–77 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield -13.3 143.1 11% 73–54 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -10.2 145.5 18% 77–61 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton -5.3 158.9 31% 98–83 ✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine +8.2 149.3 77% 81–88 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +12.3 135.6 87% 83–58 ✗
Oregon State @ Portland -16.8 150.2 6% 72–84 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +9.8 138.6 81% 60–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +14.2 153.8 90% 77–88 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +11.0 137.8 84% 60–62 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth +1.7 162.0 56% 56–78 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara +0.2 138.7 51% 84–83 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.