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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–11 on winners spread MAE 7.5 43 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ UTSA	-11.0	159.8	16%	75–70	✓
Rutgers @ Purdue	+12.4	152.7	87%	71–100	✓
LSU @ Kentucky	+13.6	160.4	89%	64–95	✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland	+1.6	140.3	56%	73–77	✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette	+5.3	138.6	68%	68–69	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+10.3	136.0	83%	75–99	✓
Green Bay @ Oakland	+11.6	145.6	85%	72–96	✓
Miami @ Georgia Tech	+9.4	156.9	80%	74–89	✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech	-8.4	153.8	22%	91–59	✓
Saint Louis @ Dayton	+6.2	146.5	72%	67–75	✓
VCU @ Duquesne	-9.7	133.2	19%	71–62	✓
NJIT @ Binghamton	+8.4	134.8	78%	75–72	✗
UAlbany @ Vermont	+4.7	131.2	66%	71–79	✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall	-10.9	132.2	16%	79–61	✓
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo	-9.8	155.1	19%	84–69	✓
Kent State @ Western Michigan	-7.8	138.3	24%	77–76	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio	+11.4	155.3	85%	83–79	✗
Central Michigan @ Ball State	-0.5	146.1	48%	69–67	✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois	-4.0	146.2	36%	71–58	✓
Akron @ Toledo	-6.2	168.4	29%	96–87	✓
Texas @ Mississippi State	+5.4	151.7	69%	87–82	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State	+9.5	156.4	81%	85–98	✓
Baylor @ TCU	-4.8	139.0	33%	61–58	✓
Temple @ Tulsa	-3.3	152.3	38%	81–77	✓
Villanova @ Georgetown	-2.0	138.4	43%	73–75	✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana	+3.9	139.9	64%	69–73	✓
Auburn @ Texas A&M	-7.6	146.8	25%	72–83	✗
BYU @ Iowa State	+6.0	152.9	71%	88–85	✗
West Virginia @ Utah	+0.0	136.5	50%	71–69	✗
Florida State @ Virginia	+1.5	134.6	56%	57–60	✓
Syracuse @ SMU	+14.1	161.3	90%	75–77	✓
San José State @ Colorado State	+14.3	145.9	90%	56–83	✓
New Mexico @ Nevada	-0.8	150.4	47%	71–67	✓
Boise State @ Air Force	-16.1	134.0	7%	80–57	✓
Indiana @ Oregon	+5.7	148.4	70%	64–73	✓
Nebraska @ Ohio State	+7.4	146.3	75%	114–116	✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State	-0.4	144.8	48%	58–62	✗
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt	+3.5	151.9	63%	90–77	✗
Arizona State @ Arizona	+14.4	153.0	90%	100–113	✓
San Diego State @ UNLV	-3.1	127.7	39%	67–74	✗
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern	+2.4	153.0	59%	64–78	✓
Maryland @ Michigan	-0.0	152.4	50%	71–65	✓
DePaul @ Providence	+6.5	146.0	72%	80–77	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.