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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–5 on winners spread MAE 6.4 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Alabama @ Bradley	+5.5	147.6	69%	62–71	✓
Furman @ North Texas	+8.7	126.9	78%	64–75	✓
Northern Iowa @ SMU	+9.9	146.4	82%	63–73	✓
Xavier @ Texas	+0.2	154.4	51%	86–80	✗
Northern Colorado @ UC Irvine	+9.4	150.4	80%	72–82	✓
Utah Valley @ San Francisco	+8.8	142.1	79%	70–79	✓
Loyola Chicago @ San José State	-0.9	142.8	47%	73–70	✓
Creighton @ Louisville	+2.5	148.0	59%	89–75	✗
High Point @ Purdue	+9.9	152.5	82%	63–75	✓
Montana @ Wisconsin	+17.4	153.2	94%	66–85	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Houston	+25.9	126.1	99%	40–78	✓
Alabama State @ Auburn	+31.9	151.1	100%	63–83	✓
McNeese @ Clemson	+6.1	137.1	71%	69–67	✗
VCU @ BYU	+1.8	148.2	56%	71–80	✓
Georgia @ Gonzaga	+6.3	152.1	72%	68–89	✓
Wofford @ Tennessee	+17.8	132.3	95%	62–77	✓
Arkansas @ Kansas	+4.4	144.3	66%	79–72	✗
Yale @ Texas A&M	+8.2	143.5	77%	71–80	✓
Drake @ Missouri	+6.6	136.4	73%	67–57	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.