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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 18.3
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jackson State
@
Louisville
|
+45.0 | 156.8 | 100% | 70–106 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
West Virginia
|
+22.6 | 145.0 | 98% | 65–73 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Miami
|
+14.3 | 163.7 | 90% | 61–101 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Drake
|
+25.8 | 156.9 | 99% | 81–79 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Auburn
|
+18.3 | 158.8 | 95% | 57–95 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
South Alabama
|
+30.1 | 162.0 | 100% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Texas A&M
|
+35.0 | 152.9 | 100% | 70–104 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Saint Louis
|
+25.0 | 155.0 | 99% | 86–108 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
TCU
|
+17.4 | 157.4 | 94% | 63–104 | ✓ |
Mercyhurst
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+15.5 | 148.8 | 92% | 73–65 | ✗ |
Denver
@
Washington
|
+25.2 | 151.0 | 99% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
Colgate
|
+29.5 | 150.8 | 100% | 68–65 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Northwestern
|
+14.3 | 139.6 | 90% | 52–76 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Maryland
|
+28.7 | 151.4 | 100% | 70–60 | ✗ |
Green Bay
@
Buffalo
|
+23.3 | 154.1 | 98% | 76–83 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Ohio State
|
+14.2 | 174.9 | 90% | 68–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.