Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
37–11 on winners spread MAE 14.6 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oakland @ Purdue +30.6 160.1 100% 77–87 ✓
Valparaiso @ Kentucky +25.3 135.9 99% 59–107 ✓
Kansas @ North Carolina +12.1 147.5 86% 74–87 ✓
Winthrop @ George Mason +17.9 140.1 95% 90–96 ✓
Troy @ Furman +1.8 172.6 57% 64–61 ✗
Western Illinois @ Iowa +21.3 158.6 97% 58–77 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Charlotte +15.4 157.5 92% 65–70 ✓
Georgia State @ Cincinnati +23.4 142.4 98% 64–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Virginia +32.9 158.6 100% 62–81 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Notre Dame +23.4 155.3 98% 70–102 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Clemson +31.9 141.2 100% 59–97 ✓
Bucknell @ Mount St. Mary's +19.0 141.7 96% 73–62 ✗
UL Monroe @ Ole Miss +22.9 160.0 98% 65–86 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +24.9 151.2 99% 61–68 ✓
Bryant @ Georgia Tech +6.9 138.1 73% 45–74 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri +33.4 149.8 100% 84–89 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Murray State +34.2 159.7 100% 60–108 ✓
Nicholls @ Eastern Illinois +25.3 135.9 99% 57–65 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin +24.6 165.9 99% 72–97 ✓
South Carolina State @ Samford +32.0 151.3 100% 72–82 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Louisiana +23.1 145.4 98% 52–58 ✓
Utah Tech @ Arizona +15.8 161.0 92% 67–93 ✓
Youngstown State @ Grand Canyon +15.5 149.9 92% 90–81 ✗
UAB @ NC State +20.5 165.0 97% 70–94 ✓
UIC @ Oregon State +12.6 147.8 87% 73–76 ✓
Alabama @ St. John's +23.3 168.3 98% 103–96 ✗
Alcorn State @ Minnesota +19.0 155.7 96% 50–95 ✓
Penn State @ New Haven +9.1 137.5 80% 87–43 ✗
Delaware State @ Syracuse +24.7 143.8 99% 43–83 ✓
Western Carolina @ Duke +26.9 147.8 99% 54–95 ✓
South Florida @ George Washington -3.3 143.8 38% 95–99 ✗
Texas State @ Tulane +21.8 146.9 98% 71–79 ✓
Marshall @ Toledo +0.2 154.2 51% 85–73 ✗
Fairfield @ NJIT +23.6 142.6 98% 74–53 ✗
Milwaukee @ Wofford +19.8 146.6 96% 76–86 ✓
Niagara @ Binghamton +11.2 142.9 85% 67–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Peter's +17.1 136.8 94% 83–93 ✓
Towson @ Houston +13.5 135.1 89% 48–65 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Georgia Southern +23.4 154.4 98% 90–93 ✓
Lafayette @ Texas +9.3 148.9 80% 60–97 ✓
Vanderbilt @ UCF +5.1 159.0 68% 105–93 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Colorado +8.4 150.8 78% 97–102 ✓
Canisius @ St. Bonaventure +27.3 139.7 99% 70–89 ✓
Providence @ Virginia Tech +6.8 161.3 73% 101–107 ✓
Long Beach State @ Fresno State +16.2 133.1 93% 62–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Butler +28.8 175.0 100% 80–112 ✓
UAlbany @ Massachusetts +14.6 141.6 91% 62–83 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charleston +3.5 165.2 63% 94–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.