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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–7 on winners spread MAE 10.8 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Minnesota @ Purdue	+19.9	139.1	96%	57–85	✓
New Haven @ NJIT	+1.7	129.5	56%	64–70	✓
Charleston @ South Florida	+19.1	160.3	96%	75–81	✓
Western Kentucky @ Marshall	+1.5	166.3	55%	61–77	✓
New Mexico @ VCU	+11.1	153.1	84%	81–78	✗
Maine @ Boston University	+9.8	135.9	81%	69–59	✗
Bryant @ Iona	+13.7	148.8	89%	63–69	✓
Idaho @ Notre Dame	+10.6	147.3	83%	65–80	✓
Liberty @ NC State	+12.1	165.9	86%	45–85	✓
Massachusetts @ Boston College	+0.8	136.1	53%	76–74	✗
Colgate @ St. Bonaventure	+8.3	150.3	77%	77–85	✓
Delaware @ George Washington	+25.8	161.9	99%	70–58	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham	+13.9	137.8	90%	54–75	✓
Jackson State @ Houston	+34.6	134.5	100%	38–80	✓
UT Martin @ Southern Illinois	+3.9	148.0	64%	54–83	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois	-0.9	153.2	47%	68–59	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa	+28.3	164.3	99%	84–117	✓
Weber State @ Kansas City	-8.1	154.3	23%	64–60	✓
Idaho State @ Utah Valley	+11.1	142.4	84%	69–73	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne	-0.1	146.7	50%	65–80	✗
Southern @ Texas State	+2.7	154.0	60%	83–86	✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska	+5.1	159.0	68%	60–90	✓
Duquesne @ Boise State	+17.8	152.2	95%	64–86	✓
Lamar @ San Diego State	+15.2	137.4	92%	71–89	✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge	-3.2	152.7	39%	87–89	✗
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis	+0.8	176.6	53%	85–75	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.