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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wofford
@
Gardner-Webb
|
-7.8 | 154.9 | 24% | 83–57 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
VCU
|
+32.0 | 140.0 | 100% | 58–84 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
SE Louisiana
|
+1.9 | 141.4 | 57% | 70–69 | ✗ |
Wyoming
@
South Dakota State
|
-10.4 | 151.6 | 17% | 87–72 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Alabama A&M
|
+2.4 | 138.3 | 59% | 60–68 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Houston Christian
|
-11.6 | 141.8 | 15% | 78–68 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
TCU
|
+16.6 | 149.2 | 93% | 65–69 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Drexel
|
+5.0 | 137.7 | 68% | 74–66 | ✗ |
Lipscomb
@
Duke
|
+26.5 | 150.7 | 99% | 73–97 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
South Carolina State
|
-12.9 | 148.1 | 12% | 78–72 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
UMass Lowell
|
+1.8 | 157.2 | 56% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Holy Cross
|
+3.9 | 147.3 | 64% | 89–64 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Michigan State
|
+21.1 | 145.2 | 97% | 69–92 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.