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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–5 on winners spread MAE 8.5 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Louisville @ Tennessee -0.8 162.0 47% 62–83 ✗
DePaul @ St. John's +20.1 148.5 97% 66–79 ✓
Belmont @ Evansville -14.0 150.7 10% 83–78 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Greensboro +4.0 157.0 64% 71–65 ✗
Tarleton State @ Mississippi Valley State -16.9 159.1 6% 88–64 ✓
Kansas City @ Oklahoma +26.0 147.6 99% 67–89 ✓
Rider @ Delaware +14.9 131.0 91% 57–65 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Wright State +3.5 155.6 62% 83–76 ✗
Chicago State @ Bowling Green +26.3 150.1 99% 55–76 ✓
Florida State @ Dayton +8.2 164.0 77% 69–97 ✓
Canisius @ Rhode Island +21.6 129.7 98% 45–62 ✓
South Carolina @ Clemson +12.8 144.8 88% 61–68 ✓
Florida International @ Miami +22.4 158.6 98% 81–98 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar +0.0 132.6 50% 83–72 ✗
Marist @ Georgia Tech +1.3 128.5 55% 76–87 ✓
Long Island University @ Mississippi State +10.8 159.9 84% 83–87 ✓
Little Rock @ Morehead State +10.9 143.3 84% 64–78 ✓
East Tennessee State @ North Carolina +12.1 148.0 87% 58–77 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Texas Tech +16.4 155.4 93% 90–101 ✓
Le Moyne @ Texas +20.6 162.9 97% 53–95 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Missouri State +2.9 148.4 60% 62–63 ✓
Valparaiso @ Northwestern +15.9 143.3 93% 70–86 ✓
Butler @ UConn +13.8 153.1 89% 60–79 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Arizona +31.3 144.1 100% 62–96 ✓
Pacific @ BYU +18.6 141.5 95% 57–93 ✓
Queens University @ Arkansas +23.3 174.3 98% 80–108 ✓
Towson @ Kansas +18.8 129.8 96% 49–73 ✓
Montana State @ Cal Poly -0.0 155.5 50% 83–80 ✓
Southern @ California Baptist +15.0 162.3 91% 67–75 ✓
UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount -2.5 142.8 41% 67–57 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -4.5 130.9 34% 60–54 ✓
Stonehill @ New Hampshire +5.4 133.1 69% 58–59 ✓
Saint Francis @ Florida +42.2 149.6 100% 61–102 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier +4.2 146.5 65% 98–57 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.