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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 7.3 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington	+14.0	139.7	90%	53–65	✓
St. John's @ Georgetown	-11.1	156.5	16%	95–83	✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State	+1.9	160.8	57%	85–83	✗
Samford @ VMI	-4.3	152.6	35%	78–58	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+3.1	156.9	61%	82–81	✗
Stetson @ North Alabama	+11.8	143.4	86%	70–67	✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota	+0.5	146.5	52%	61–72	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky	+15.1	178.6	91%	72–81	✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State	+9.7	147.7	81%	70–76	✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+5.8	152.0	70%	72–54	✗
Jacksonville @ Lipscomb	+17.4	148.3	94%	57–76	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas	+4.2	160.0	65%	83–85	✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois	+11.1	147.6	84%	70–75	✓
Evansville @ Illinois State	+20.1	140.6	97%	47–73	✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington	+1.2	128.3	54%	51–63	✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	+2.6	148.2	59%	72–77	✓
Portland State @ Weber State	+5.2	151.4	68%	95–90	✗
Western Illinois @ UT Martin	+18.4	137.4	95%	60–67	✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville	+12.0	136.0	86%	55–59	✓
Morehead State @ Lindenwood	+11.2	151.5	85%	64–77	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis	+8.5	168.6	78%	80–89	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield	-8.7	141.4	22%	81–77	✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe	-9.2	160.4	20%	87–73	✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State	+10.4	153.2	83%	69–84	✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana	+7.1	145.1	74%	64–78	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock	-3.9	147.4	36%	58–77	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.