He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–18 on winners spread MAE 8.7 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Butler @ St. John's +10.2 163.7 82% 70–92 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois +0.2 129.3 51% 50–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Lafayette +5.0 140.2 68% 79–81 ✓
La Salle @ Fordham +4.2 128.4 65% 58–64 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne +5.3 163.4 69% 87–79 ✗
Davidson @ George Mason +7.5 137.0 75% 52–60 ✓
Rice @ East Carolina +1.6 143.5 56% 83–77 ✗
Charlotte @ Temple +4.0 145.6 64% 80–76 ✗
USC @ Iowa +11.5 148.9 85% 72–73 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +11.7 144.5 86% 74–79 ✓
California @ Florida State -1.9 155.7 43% 61–63 ✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland -5.3 151.2 31% 68–77 ✗
Navy @ Boston University -3.3 146.3 38% 58–50 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne -3.5 168.0 37% 74–65 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +11.3 173.1 85% 58–74 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU +11.2 156.1 85% 80–66 ✗
Tennessee @ Georgia +1.3 164.9 55% 86–85 ✗
Texas @ Auburn +4.5 164.5 66% 82–88 ✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine +5.9 160.6 71% 74–77 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +2.6 162.0 59% 100–90 ✗
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky -3.2 149.7 39% 90–82 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International +5.8 148.2 70% 78–74 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +3.1 167.0 61% 69–72 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +12.4 142.2 87% 78–82 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall +8.1 140.9 77% 68–86 ✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso -5.7 146.8 30% 78–77 ✓
North Texas @ Tulsa +13.8 142.6 90% 66–82 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -16.6 151.5 7% 83–73 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City -5.4 164.2 31% 69–61 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha -3.1 151.2 39% 71–80 ✗
Marshall @ Texas State -7.2 149.5 26% 68–72 ✗
Old Dominion @ Arkansas State +8.6 164.1 78% 75–71 ✗
Sam Houston @ Missouri State -3.3 150.6 38% 80–71 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +2.1 142.8 58% 61–70 ✓
Florida @ South Carolina -9.1 150.2 20% 95–48 ✓
Wyoming @ Utah State +12.3 153.2 87% 62–94 ✓
Illinois State @ Murray State +2.1 160.6 58% 70–65 ✗
San Diego @ Pepperdine -1.0 147.1 46% 92–88 ✓
South Florida @ Tulane -9.8 162.7 19% 97–83 ✓
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +9.0 148.4 79% 63–67 ✓
Stanford @ Miami +10.2 151.8 82% 70–79 ✓
Delaware @ New Mexico State +13.5 139.4 89% 73–64 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +1.8 124.2 56% 69–59 ✗
Houston @ TCU -6.1 138.4 29% 79–70 ✓
Seattle U @ Washington State +1.4 143.9 55% 58–70 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +9.0 145.6 79% 51–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Loyola Marymount +7.3 140.8 75% 72–69 ✗
Colorado State @ San Diego State +6.9 148.9 73% 50–73 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +11.0 151.2 84% 73–88 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon -3.2 142.2 38% 73–57 ✓
Samford @ Furman +8.4 148.0 78% 73–78 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +4.8 147.2 67% 61–66 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -1.8 136.1 44% 60–63 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga -1.0 150.5 47% 81–55 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +21.5 148.1 97% 50–69 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +6.7 142.2 73% 77–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.