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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–20 on winners spread MAE 9.8 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Colorado @ Iowa State	+18.7	160.4	96%	67–97	✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern	+7.1	168.4	74%	84–75	✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate	+3.0	150.5	61%	60–65	✓
New Haven @ Mercyhurst	+6.3	118.8	72%	51–70	✓
Le Moyne @ Long Island University	+5.9	152.7	70%	61–83	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill	+3.3	134.6	62%	57–58	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+5.9	147.5	70%	55–64	✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell	+4.3	154.3	65%	81–69	✗
William & Mary @ Elon	-0.7	170.3	47%	76–79	✗
Hampton @ Drexel	+5.2	129.4	68%	51–58	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth	+8.1	146.7	77%	81–83	✓
Charleston @ Hofstra	+7.3	152.5	75%	66–64	✗
VMI @ The Citadel	+3.7	145.4	63%	56–80	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer	+16.4	166.0	93%	77–95	✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State	+12.5	151.0	87%	90–88	✗
James Madison @ Troy	+11.2	161.6	85%	73–64	✗
Stetson @ North Florida	+3.1	168.7	61%	84–77	✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast	+11.5	156.3	85%	64–72	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville	-5.8	145.4	30%	65–70	✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee	+0.1	142.2	50%	81–65	✗
Central Connecticut @ Wagner	+1.2	151.2	54%	62–55	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	+0.5	137.0	52%	65–67	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis	+1.1	151.5	54%	65–92	✓
Penn State @ Northwestern	+9.2	152.9	80%	73–94	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	+5.9	161.8	70%	69–77	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+13.7	155.1	89%	81–80	✗
Georgia State @ Louisiana	-2.1	125.8	42%	72–82	✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama	+4.2	142.3	65%	48–53	✓
App State @ Southern Miss	+1.2	135.4	54%	70–63	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona	-2.3	149.3	42%	86–92	✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	+13.5	140.3	89%	61–80	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-3.4	162.6	38%	83–55	✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+0.3	142.5	51%	76–70	✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana	-3.6	147.8	37%	73–60	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-4.5	126.2	34%	76–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois	-8.9	144.2	21%	78–74	✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State	+9.5	155.3	81%	63–70	✓
Washington @ Illinois	+13.7	153.5	89%	66–75	✓
Presbyterian @ High Point	+17.4	151.9	94%	81–84	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson	-0.7	126.9	47%	82–73	✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado	+3.1	158.7	61%	83–91	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield	+0.2	166.5	51%	104–79	✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside	+0.0	149.3	50%	61–71	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge	+0.7	165.6	52%	78–94	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego	+5.8	151.2	70%	62–48	✗
Montana State @ Sacramento State	-6.4	154.8	28%	80–83	✗
Montana @ Portland State	+3.7	147.1	63%	64–60	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine	-0.9	133.3	47%	76–87	✗
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe	-13.3	171.1	11%	79–76	✓
Princeton @ Cornell	+7.3	168.9	75%	64–87	✓
Kent State @ Akron	+14.1	182.2	90%	52–69	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State	+10.9	166.0	84%	76–85	✓
Siena @ Niagara	-10.4	127.2	17%	82–79	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.