Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -485 UNT +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -14.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -12.6 (+3.4) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -10.0 (+6.0) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -11.3 (+4.7) | 140.9 (+7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -11.9 (+4.1) | 139.2 (+8.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 84 UNT |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNT 72 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UNT 77 – 59 TLSA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNT 63 – 44 TLSA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UNT 68 – 55 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#51) | 0.0 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#63) | 0.13 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#66) | 0.14 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#55) | 0.492 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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