We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–11 on winners spread MAE 8.7 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio @ Old Dominion +0.1 156.4 50% 72–78 ✓
Radford @ High Point +17.1 170.3 94% 77–86 ✓
Merrimack @ Rider -9.0 132.4 21% 73–47 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton +12.9 163.2 88% 66–82 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +10.2 150.9 82% 68–73 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Iona +9.4 146.6 80% 83–76 ✗
Marist @ Fairfield -4.0 138.8 36% 60–63 ✗
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +4.7 148.0 67% 89–79 ✗
Illinois @ Michigan State -0.3 143.3 49% 82–85 ✗
Clemson @ California -2.0 138.0 43% 77–55 ✓
Utah State @ Wyoming -8.4 150.6 22% 85–83 ✓
Seattle U @ Portland -2.3 143.1 42% 53–54 ✗
Pacific @ Pepperdine -6.9 137.6 26% 92–59 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Stanford +8.6 151.3 78% 72–95 ✓
San Diego State @ Air Force -23.1 137.4 2% 88–54 ✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas +17.6 150.7 95% 75–92 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State +8.1 151.9 77% 72–71 ✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +11.0 133.6 84% 63–65 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State -0.1 150.2 50% 58–77 ✗
Florida @ Texas A&M -4.4 167.3 34% 86–67 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky +1.3 148.5 55% 71–74 ✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah -3.8 159.9 37% 62–59 ✓
San José State @ Colorado State +12.4 139.4 87% 57–65 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +6.8 151.4 73% 63–83 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +9.3 153.7 80% 53–72 ✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP -3.6 136.7 37% 88–91 ✗
Arizona State @ Colorado +3.1 165.5 61% 70–78 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +10.5 145.3 83% 59–69 ✓
Washington @ UCLA +4.1 147.3 64% 73–77 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico +5.0 152.7 68% 91–90 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara +2.4 141.5 58% 79–84 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State -5.0 153.0 33% 74–73 ✓
Houston @ BYU -1.1 149.4 46% 77–66 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +12.7 142.0 88% 54–79 ✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i +7.1 143.2 74% 67–72 ✓
Tulsa @ South Florida +0.4 177.9 52% 74–80 ✓
USC @ Penn State -5.6 162.2 31% 77–75 ✓
Michigan @ Ohio State -11.7 165.7 14% 82–61 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia -4.4 138.1 34% 70–63 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +12.5 153.3 87% 67–64 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulane -5.7 147.9 30% 75–61 ✓
Charlotte @ Memphis +7.5 145.0 75% 54–77 ✓
UCF @ Cincinnati +0.5 146.2 52% 72–92 ✓
Maryland @ Minnesota +10.7 140.2 83% 67–62 ✗
Rice @ UAB +11.0 156.8 84% 65–71 ✓
Northwestern @ Iowa +12.4 140.9 87% 70–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.