I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–43 on winners spread MAE 8.3 128 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ VCU +8.0 153.8 77% 73–99 ✓
Brown @ Yale +18.6 143.7 95% 69–81 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -0.6 146.8 48% 72–81 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso +11.8 136.5 86% 63–70 ✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +0.3 162.7 51% 91–81 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State +10.7 143.8 83% 76–86 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa +5.1 131.6 68% 49–61 ✓
Belmont @ UIC -4.1 152.9 35% 68–62 ✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers -16.4 143.8 7% 80–68 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia +12.6 151.9 87% 59–72 ✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State -8.8 165.6 21% 88–68 ✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest -8.7 161.3 21% 88–80 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina -4.7 144.5 34% 81–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +0.9 149.5 53% 63–60 ✗
Wisconsin @ Indiana +5.6 160.2 69% 77–78 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -6.3 142.6 28% 80–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State +11.6 161.3 85% 73–82 ✓
Drexel @ Elon +5.1 144.8 68% 82–77 ✗
Oregon @ Purdue +19.2 146.5 96% 64–68 ✓
Massachusetts @ Coastal Carolina -1.4 151.5 45% 91–94 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ App State +4.0 127.2 64% 60–65 ✓
Chicago State @ New Haven +5.2 131.4 68% 63–57 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +6.3 158.6 72% 69–78 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +4.8 147.4 67% 67–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne +12.8 154.9 88% 84–86 ✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI -17.0 145.7 6% 87–70 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina +0.1 150.3 50% 78–59 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware -5.3 135.0 31% 88–89 ✗
New Hampshire @ Vermont +9.2 145.1 80% 57–80 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +15.3 158.9 92% 69–72 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State +4.5 139.9 66% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island +4.5 143.2 66% 77–82 ✓
George Washington @ Duquesne -1.8 167.4 44% 86–88 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham +0.9 138.3 53% 70–67 ✗
North Texas @ UTSA -11.6 133.5 15% 81–58 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +8.0 156.8 77% 82–84 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +0.3 142.3 51% 67–76 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +13.0 157.0 88% 74–79 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +17.9 145.1 95% 62–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate -0.2 152.6 49% 94–100 ✗
Butler @ Marquette -2.2 162.0 42% 55–70 ✗
SMU @ Pittsburgh -6.2 151.6 29% 86–67 ✓
Miami @ Boston College -9.4 141.7 20% 74–68 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia +3.7 179.7 63% 88–67 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota +0.7 166.4 53% 98–79 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State +10.9 148.7 84% 84–92 ✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis +2.5 181.6 59% 74–82 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +3.8 154.0 63% 63–76 ✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's -1.2 136.4 46% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +14.9 139.1 91% 55–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan -1.2 165.8 46% 68–80 ✗
Princeton @ Pennsylvania +5.9 143.4 70% 60–61 ✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T -0.7 161.7 48% 79–71 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +8.9 141.5 79% 78–71 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas +8.7 149.4 78% 68–79 ✓
Jacksonville @ West Georgia +0.8 141.7 53% 73–87 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine -0.6 162.5 48% 65–81 ✗
Missouri State @ Liberty +10.1 143.6 82% 76–79 ✓
Utah @ Kansas +20.3 153.3 97% 59–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -6.2 152.2 29% 74–77 ✗
La Salle @ Saint Louis +26.4 151.1 99% 58–82 ✓
Western Michigan @ Texas State +2.9 147.8 60% 61–77 ✓
Kent State @ Southern Miss -3.2 159.5 39% 65–66 ✗
Ball State @ UL Monroe -2.0 145.3 43% 73–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Arkansas State -1.9 157.2 43% 54–91 ✗
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +4.1 160.6 64% 70–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech -7.2 139.9 26% 78–87 ✗
Oklahoma @ Vanderbilt +14.7 164.9 91% 92–91 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.4 132.6 49% 52–55 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Arizona +20.2 168.6 97% 47–84 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Marshall -2.9 166.9 40% 90–74 ✓
Buffalo @ South Alabama -0.3 147.2 49% 69–81 ✗
Central Michigan @ Louisiana +1.2 131.6 54% 80–85 ✓
Toledo @ James Madison -2.0 155.3 43% 71–73 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +9.5 139.0 81% 52–60 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge +9.3 159.5 80% 74–88 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +7.0 164.6 74% 72–90 ✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame +4.9 154.7 67% 82–79 ✗
American University @ Navy +7.9 136.5 76% 73–82 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University +13.2 136.5 88% 54–61 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +1.8 122.1 56% 67–73 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT +11.3 144.9 85% 64–73 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +6.3 133.1 72% 49–71 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +4.9 154.5 67% 55–69 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +6.7 160.7 73% 66–77 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +0.7 178.5 53% 96–92 ✗
North Florida @ Queens University +13.4 183.4 89% 72–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +10.7 137.1 83% 61–55 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock -1.6 131.0 44% 71–61 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +3.3 140.3 62% 60–54 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +8.7 139.3 78% 60–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Howard +16.3 143.2 93% 57–85 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +6.5 145.1 72% 68–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ UNLV -4.2 151.4 35% 78–80 ✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +3.7 147.8 63% 72–66 ✗
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +3.9 136.2 64% 47–55 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +0.2 137.5 51% 83–76 ✗
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +17.3 152.6 94% 56–83 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State -1.5 140.2 45% 71–79 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +11.8 142.3 86% 65–90 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell -5.9 146.8 30% 78–59 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +7.9 157.3 76% 62–67 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth -0.3 144.9 49% 71–58 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +8.5 171.0 78% 58–67 ✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +16.3 148.8 93% 64–81 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +9.7 154.8 81% 88–100 ✓
North Alabama @ Austin Peay +16.2 144.5 93% 62–91 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +3.1 156.6 61% 86–78 ✗
Alabama State @ Grambling +7.5 146.7 75% 47–57 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +9.2 158.1 80% 76–82 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -3.7 138.5 37% 47–65 ✗
Gonzaga @ Oregon State -21.7 149.5 2% 81–61 ✓
Akron @ Troy -6.1 169.8 29% 69–79 ✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M +3.0 149.1 61% 62–57 ✗
Santa Clara @ Washington State -8.8 158.4 21% 96–92 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +5.3 150.7 68% 68–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton -0.3 136.6 49% 68–69 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +10.4 165.9 83% 68–67 ✗
Mercer @ Samford -3.7 162.1 37% 49–69 ✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin +10.7 136.4 83% 74–84 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ LSU New Orleans -0.4 153.3 48% 95–76 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M +3.3 146.1 62% 48–52 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State -0.1 157.4 50% 69–61 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +3.7 150.7 63% 68–73 ✓
Georgia @ LSU -0.4 172.8 48% 83–71 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -5.5 149.2 31% 97–81 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -7.1 149.6 26% 68–71 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +10.2 156.6 82% 77–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.