I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–19 on winners spread MAE 9.7 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +1.4 152.8 55% 92–91 ✗
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +11.8 142.1 86% 58–67 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -3.9 157.5 36% 87–85 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State -3.7 147.6 37% 69–53 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's +5.1 148.1 68% 57–89 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Louis +19.0 165.8 96% 76–91 ✓
Washington State @ Pepperdine -6.7 154.1 27% 79–88 ✗
Oregon State @ Santa Clara +17.9 154.9 95% 72–93 ✓
Baylor @ UCF +2.6 165.8 59% 87–86 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside -4.1 157.6 35% 84–95 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City -2.9 145.6 40% 94–70 ✓
Omaha @ St. Thomas +13.0 157.8 88% 53–68 ✓
Arkansas @ Florida +7.7 167.3 76% 77–111 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +8.8 152.7 79% 82–89 ✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn +10.1 155.7 82% 85–79 ✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah -3.4 157.7 38% 67–81 ✗
Seattle U @ Loyola Marymount +0.6 134.8 52% 71–66 ✗
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +8.0 141.8 77% 67–82 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.8 153.4 40% 88–87 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -3.4 158.6 38% 83–85 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Utah State +11.1 147.3 84% 69–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +10.0 162.0 82% 64–80 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -3.5 145.7 37% 59–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +4.1 142.0 65% 60–64 ✓
La Salle @ Davidson +10.3 130.7 83% 64–71 ✓
Tulane @ South Florida +16.6 160.5 93% 62–90 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +5.5 138.9 69% 62–58 ✗
Rutgers @ Maryland +4.2 146.6 65% 69–65 ✗
UIC @ Indiana State -3.9 146.7 36% 63–79 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Canisius -8.7 137.4 21% 67–63 ✓
Purdue @ Ohio State -5.3 154.2 31% 74–82 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +2.1 166.3 58% 78–87 ✓
Rice @ Temple +7.6 146.9 75% 80–74 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -7.5 146.6 25% 68–84 ✗
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +7.3 153.3 75% 76–77 ✓
Rider @ Siena +17.0 135.3 94% 61–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +6.4 146.8 72% 69–47 ✗
Merrimack @ Niagara -8.0 127.1 23% 73–66 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +6.7 129.5 73% 63–56 ✗
Iona @ Manhattan -4.8 160.3 33% 69–65 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake -5.0 133.6 33% 75–53 ✓
Michigan State @ Indiana -3.8 144.6 36% 77–64 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -10.1 140.6 18% 81–67 ✓
DePaul @ Marquette +3.6 142.9 63% 62–51 ✗
Belmont @ Illinois State -0.5 152.8 48% 74–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.