We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
40–14 on winners spread MAE 8.9 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +11.1 170.7 84% 76–108 ✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -2.0 129.1 43% 64–57 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +4.9 142.9 67% 65–73 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay +2.6 164.5 59% 90–83 ✗
Providence @ Georgetown +1.0 170.1 54% 79–80 ✓
Fresno State @ Grand Canyon +9.4 138.6 80% 60–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +4.4 172.5 65% 90–77 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +7.0 142.1 74% 69–79 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +8.4 150.5 78% 50–74 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +8.5 179.8 78% 84–96 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +5.2 161.2 68% 88–85 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -7.1 147.6 26% 82–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +3.3 162.5 62% 77–73 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary +6.2 169.2 71% 62–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +5.5 136.9 69% 58–63 ✓
UCLA @ USC -3.2 154.8 39% 89–68 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota +2.0 135.0 57% 66–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +2.1 144.3 57% 64–63 ✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -5.8 151.6 30% 104–101 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +5.7 148.9 70% 65–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +5.3 154.8 69% 67–93 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +0.6 156.4 52% 96–72 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +25.2 140.9 99% 59–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +5.7 160.8 70% 45–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ BYU +0.5 162.2 52% 76–82 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas +12.8 157.2 88% 67–66 ✗
Arizona @ Colorado -15.5 160.6 8% 89–79 ✓
Washington @ Oregon -2.9 143.3 40% 79–85 ✗
Seattle U @ Pacific +0.1 130.6 50% 58–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +14.0 149.0 90% 84–75 ✗
Penn State @ Rutgers +2.3 154.1 58% 62–74 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -1.1 154.1 46% 69–76 ✗
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +6.8 150.3 73% 85–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +6.4 166.8 72% 76–91 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -3.2 125.7 39% 84–69 ✓
Memphis @ Tulane -3.3 146.4 38% 96–95 ✓
Charlotte @ South Florida +15.1 162.3 91% 60–83 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +9.6 143.1 81% 73–72 ✗
Queens University @ Central Arkansas +2.9 165.4 60% 98–93 ✗
Illinois @ Maryland -19.4 150.3 4% 78–72 ✓
Temple @ Tulsa +13.7 155.2 89% 76–78 ✓
UTSA @ Rice +12.0 149.6 86% 71–80 ✓
East Carolina @ UAB +13.0 150.1 88% 83–90 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth +1.5 133.5 55% 57–65 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -1.7 150.5 44% 96–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +5.5 153.0 69% 67–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +11.5 151.1 85% 80–90 ✓
Iowa @ Nebraska +4.4 135.0 66% 75–84 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +5.5 149.6 69% 60–73 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +1.0 133.7 53% 81–56 ✗
Southern Miss @ Troy +4.1 151.9 65% 70–78 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +0.3 126.8 51% 57–58 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +7.3 152.1 75% 75–81 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +5.8 141.9 70% 78–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.