I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
61–24 on winners spread MAE 8.7 85 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Dayton -0.6 152.8 48% 68–62 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown -3.7 141.0 37% 82–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +11.0 165.9 84% 78–86 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +0.8 133.9 53% 69–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +5.6 159.1 70% 78–99 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +3.8 136.1 64% 71–81 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -1.6 160.0 44% 76–62 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +3.0 146.1 61% 84–90 ✓
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +8.7 157.5 79% 70–84 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +7.3 168.1 75% 63–71 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +2.6 144.0 59% 62–77 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +0.4 140.9 51% 55–68 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +1.5 143.0 56% 74–55 ✗
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +3.4 154.4 62% 94–85 ✗
St. John's @ Seton Hall -3.6 136.3 37% 72–65 ✓
Portland @ Washington State +5.8 154.6 70% 74–68 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio -7.9 163.5 24% 110–108 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +1.5 148.2 55% 91–85 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota -5.1 166.6 32% 67–83 ✗
UNLV @ San Diego State +11.5 159.5 85% 86–89 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State -0.7 125.5 48% 74–52 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -3.7 148.6 37% 61–66 ✗
San Diego @ Seattle U +8.1 144.0 77% 56–58 ✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State -12.4 152.6 13% 82–75 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri -5.7 166.3 30% 88–84 ✓
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure +0.4 145.4 52% 68–63 ✗
Butler @ DePaul +1.1 145.8 54% 81–71 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +12.1 155.2 86% 78–91 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -2.6 139.1 41% 69–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +17.1 142.3 94% 76–79 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Delaware +0.4 130.1 51% 81–38 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +10.9 151.1 84% 72–76 ✓
Campbell @ Stony Brook -1.8 151.6 43% 96–89 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst +7.2 130.1 74% 51–56 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +16.5 142.8 93% 76–83 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +12.2 152.2 87% 71–75 ✓
UConn @ Marquette -11.7 144.1 14% 62–68 ✗
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +8.4 136.3 78% 76–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +5.3 146.0 68% 64–61 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +3.0 148.5 61% 76–81 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +14.5 142.3 91% 69–84 ✓
Arizona State @ Iowa State +15.8 150.9 92% 65–86 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +16.5 153.7 93% 85–104 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +3.4 152.2 62% 86–82 ✗
Louisville @ Miami -1.9 158.8 43% 92–89 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -2.9 175.5 39% 111–90 ✓
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago -14.2 155.4 10% 62–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Fordham -0.1 128.8 49% 49–61 ✗
Richmond @ Duquesne +3.6 156.4 63% 77–79 ✓
Cincinnati @ TCU +2.8 138.3 60% 63–73 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -2.7 167.7 40% 78–91 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +14.2 143.5 90% 53–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -0.8 161.3 47% 67–92 ✗
Sam Houston @ Liberty +1.8 157.4 57% 72–79 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +13.5 137.3 89% 57–77 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University +9.1 146.4 80% 56–64 ✓
Stanford @ NC State +8.9 158.2 79% 85–84 ✗
Northeastern @ Drexel +3.7 143.7 63% 77–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +4.5 162.3 66% 75–72 ✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +7.8 147.1 76% 71–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Missouri State +0.3 146.6 51% 75–63 ✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP -0.7 133.0 47% 64–61 ✓
Georgia @ Mississippi State -8.9 170.9 21% 102–96 ✓
Drake @ UIC +4.7 148.1 67% 51–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +9.3 159.5 80% 97–93 ✗
Florida @ Kentucky -5.0 155.5 32% 84–77 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason -8.6 149.9 22% 57–86 ✗
New Mexico @ Utah State +6.8 156.4 73% 90–94 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Wichita State +6.9 152.6 74% 70–88 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State -0.2 146.6 49% 78–67 ✓
California @ Wake Forest +3.2 153.2 62% 73–80 ✓
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State +3.1 160.5 61% 76–79 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +3.8 129.3 64% 58–60 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +5.6 143.7 70% 71–69 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State -7.0 147.6 26% 88–78 ✓
Utah @ Baylor +10.8 158.5 84% 75–101 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas +5.4 154.0 69% 63–73 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +3.9 154.7 64% 78–91 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -1.0 168.0 46% 94–91 ✓
Furman @ Samford -1.1 146.9 46% 86–81 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac -1.8 136.4 43% 77–75 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.8 127.0 70% 68–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley -3.9 133.3 36% 73–69 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +15.8 145.5 92% 61–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ App State +2.2 135.1 58% 86–73 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.