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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–12 on winners spread MAE 10.3 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cincinnati @ Kansas State -5.3 140.1 40% 67–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +9.7 132.2 82% 51–79 ✓
New Hampshire @ Iowa +30.5 153.5 90% 70–112 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina +15.7 143.1 88% 59–69 ✓
Alabama State @ Missouri +23.6 159.0 91% 65–82 ✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State -11.1 135.8 16% 60–47 ✓
Oakland @ Arkansas +20.6 141.8 90% 62–92 ✓
TCU @ Arizona +11.2 144.7 86% 81–90 ✓
Bryant @ Grand Canyon +8.4 156.1 79% 66–112 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Vanderbilt +31.4 157.5 91% 56–100 ✓
Iowa State @ Colorado -5.8 147.2 26% 79–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi State +21.8 146.2 91% 73–87 ✓
Southern @ Nebraska +20.0 140.9 89% 43–77 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +11.4 146.1 86% 59–73 ✓
Portland @ Oregon State +22.0 141.5 91% 79–89 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -13.8 155.2 16% 89–82 ✓
Nicholls @ Seattle U +9.8 148.6 80% 71–69 ✗
UC Irvine @ California Baptist -3.1 141.6 34% 71–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +5.5 142.4 70% 94–97 ✓
Pacific @ San Diego +0.7 138.7 50% 65–75 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +0.6 125.1 57% 67–70 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +6.2 141.2 69% 62–61 ✗
Brown @ Kentucky +20.2 153.7 90% 54–88 ✓
Utah @ Baylor +10.5 155.4 84% 56–81 ✓
UCF @ Texas Tech +12.8 151.8 82% 87–83 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +2.2 147.5 53% 83–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Syracuse +2.3 142.2 58% 81–71 ✗
VCU @ St. Bonaventure +2.2 131.2 66% 75–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's +13.3 150.4 87% 72–81 ✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham +2.1 152.0 69% 88–63 ✗
Rhode Island @ Duquesne -5.0 141.0 39% 55–67 ✗
La Salle @ Dayton +13.2 144.3 86% 70–84 ✓
Davidson @ George Mason +5.4 137.3 64% 57–69 ✓
Seton Hall @ Xavier +12.7 136.7 85% 72–94 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech +0.5 143.3 55% 75–86 ✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee +26.3 139.1 91% 52–67 ✓
East Carolina @ South Florida +0.4 144.5 54% 69–75 ✓
Arizona State @ BYU +4.7 149.0 76% 56–76 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +11.4 141.4 84% 75–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +4.2 129.0 56% 62–57 ✗
George Washington @ Richmond -4.7 147.2 33% 61–66 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -6.6 132.6 28% 77–58 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton -2.4 151.0 46% 56–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +22.6 134.6 90% 65–88 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State +1.9 145.0 55% 72–50 ✗
Marquette @ Providence -5.1 138.2 30% 78–50 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.