Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–15 on winners spread MAE 8.9 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ South Carolina -8.6 155.3 20% 88–68 ✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas +3.4 144.6 61% 73–66 ✗
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate -6.5 146.1 27% 67–77 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Longwood +3.7 151.8 71% 76–85 ✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb +1.9 155.8 62% 83–89 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern -4.7 148.0 31% 93–79 ✓
Colorado @ UCF +1.6 147.5 67% 74–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -4.9 158.2 33% 75–64 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina -0.1 146.8 53% 79–80 ✗
Florida State @ Miami -3.2 155.2 35% 80–65 ✓
Notre Dame @ NC State +2.5 139.5 66% 65–66 ✓
George Washington @ Rhode Island +6.5 146.1 74% 75–67 ✗
Richmond @ George Mason +13.6 134.0 85% 58–64 ✓
Fordham @ VCU +16.6 147.3 89% 61–73 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne -1.2 132.8 43% 81–85 ✗
Dayton @ Massachusetts -10.1 145.3 19% 72–76 ✗
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +6.5 141.4 74% 71–68 ✗
Drake @ Bradley +3.5 128.3 57% 64–57 ✗
Lehigh @ Colgate +1.7 137.9 57% 62–67 ✓
American University @ Boston University +2.8 132.1 66% 54–60 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell +3.1 136.0 63% 62–65 ✓
USC @ Indiana +6.2 146.6 75% 69–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +2.0 141.5 59% 80–69 ✗
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.8 153.1 61% 73–78 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +15.7 140.7 89% 69–77 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer -1.0 150.3 45% 70–68 ✓
Furman @ The Citadel -14.0 133.9 13% 67–63 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +10.7 154.9 83% 86–90 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis -2.2 137.5 42% 68–73 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +3.7 159.5 72% 95–98 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville -7.0 133.6 22% 51–69 ✗
Butler @ Providence +2.2 134.7 54% 65–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +2.5 150.0 62% 78–82 ✓
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma +0.7 142.5 44% 80–78 ✗
Arizona State @ Kansas +10.8 142.6 83% 55–74 ✓
Penn State @ Illinois +10.2 161.1 81% 52–91 ✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga +29.7 152.4 91% 80–93 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +9.1 124.7 83% 59–81 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Stanford +8.8 142.5 79% 59–70 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas +3.8 155.9 65% 72–73 ✓
Kansas City @ Omaha +0.5 138.5 50% 58–77 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +18.6 131.2 90% 38–67 ✓
Virginia @ California +2.3 130.7 59% 61–75 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock +5.8 134.4 71% 59–53 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga -0.6 140.5 48% 78–75 ✓
Oregon @ Ohio State +4.2 153.2 67% 73–71 ✗
Purdue @ Rutgers -3.8 148.5 34% 68–50 ✓
Binghamton @ Maine +4.6 134.7 72% 71–82 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell +7.5 137.9 74% 67–63 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis +1.1 140.3 56% 61–95 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine -10.8 139.1 16% 74–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.