← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.6
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chattanooga
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+4.3 | 154.0 | 65% | 109–103 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Arkansas State
|
+6.8 | 151.5 | 76% | 78–103 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
Oklahoma State
|
+5.3 | 146.1 | 69% | 79–89 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
San Diego State
|
-3.7 | 140.1 | 34% | 95–68 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Santa Clara
|
+15.1 | 160.3 | 86% | 62–101 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Stanford
|
+6.1 | 147.0 | 71% | 70–87 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
American University
|
+1.0 | 129.5 | 53% | 83–72 | ✗ |
UAB
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+5.6 | 155.9 | 64% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Samford
@
George Mason
|
+7.8 | 140.6 | 78% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Dayton
|
+3.4 | 148.6 | 67% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.