← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–4 on winners
spread MAE 6.1
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.0 | 142.7 | 72% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 129.1 | 78% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 141.6 | 83% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 150.4 | 49% | 86–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 152.2 | 82% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 143.0 | 79% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 141.2 | 45% | 73–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 143.4 | 64% | 89–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 147.7 | 76% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 147.0 | 88% | 66–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.1 | 129.1 | 89% | 40–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.4 | 145.5 | 87% | 63–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 134.0 | 65% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 141.2 | 60% | 71–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 149.5 | 65% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 134.8 | 88% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 146.1 | 57% | 79–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 142.3 | 75% | 71–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 131.5 | 60% | 67–57 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.