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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Alabama
|
+18.7 | 149.8 | 88% | 87–80 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Howard
|
+3.6 | 142.5 | 60% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Massachusetts
|
+9.6 | 141.3 | 84% | 80–94 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Seton Hall
|
+20.9 | 127.8 | 88% | 58–70 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Columbia
|
+27.1 | 139.6 | 91% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Grambling
|
-1.3 | 145.5 | 35% | 70–75 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Wichita State
|
+26.2 | 146.7 | 89% | 74–95 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
LSU
|
+30.0 | 147.9 | 91% | 81–98 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
St. Thomas
|
+4.4 | 140.5 | 68% | 61–80 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Houston Christian
|
+6.4 | 142.1 | 77% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Alabama A&M
|
-2.7 | 151.4 | 48% | 64–68 | ✗ |
California
@
Kansas State
|
+7.4 | 149.1 | 76% | 96–99 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Coppin State
|
-8.6 | 136.4 | 21% | 82–59 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Rutgers
|
+18.8 | 130.0 | 89% | 72–84 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+13.7 | 153.1 | 86% | 90–83 | ✗ |
Lindenwood
@
Charleston Southern
|
+10.6 | 152.8 | 79% | 83–77 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.