Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–5 on winners spread MAE 10.8 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Minnesota @ Purdue +18.8 136.6 89% 57–85 ✓
New Haven @ NJIT +1.6 130.6 41% 64–70 ✓
Charleston @ South Florida +18.4 151.3 87% 75–81 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Marshall +1.7 156.8 55% 61–77 ✓
New Mexico @ VCU +11.1 150.1 80% 81–78 ✗
Maine @ Boston University +10.5 131.8 79% 69–59 ✗
Bryant @ Iona +11.9 143.0 85% 63–69 ✓
Idaho @ Notre Dame +9.9 143.6 79% 65–80 ✓
Liberty @ NC State +12.7 152.7 81% 45–85 ✓
Massachusetts @ Boston College -0.1 137.1 49% 76–74 ✓
Colgate @ St. Bonaventure +7.8 145.7 78% 77–85 ✓
Delaware @ George Washington +23.8 152.6 90% 70–58 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham +12.4 132.6 86% 54–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Houston +36.6 137.5 91% 38–80 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Illinois +3.2 143.3 65% 54–83 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois +2.2 143.7 45% 68–59 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa +29.2 151.9 91% 84–117 ✓
Weber State @ Kansas City -7.1 149.8 23% 64–60 ✓
Idaho State @ Utah Valley +10.5 138.3 82% 69–73 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.6 146.1 55% 65–80 ✓
Southern @ Texas State +3.3 143.3 64% 83–86 ✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska +4.5 152.9 74% 60–90 ✓
Duquesne @ Boise State +16.1 145.4 88% 64–86 ✓
Lamar @ San Diego State +11.8 137.1 82% 71–89 ✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge -2.5 148.1 42% 87–89 ✗
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis -1.7 155.7 43% 85–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.