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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.4 | 152.6 | 73% | 58–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 153.7 | 61% | 79–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 145.5 | 37% | 80–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 155.2 | 81% | 83–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 159.4 | 67% | 89–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.1 | 148.3 | 77% | 75–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 140.4 | 69% | 69–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 145.6 | 79% | 73–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 147.6 | 57% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.4 | 138.7 | 86% | 47–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 157.6 | 71% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 160.4 | 78% | 83–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.4 | 131.1 | 87% | 65–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 148.0 | 76% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 142.1 | 85% | 67–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 157.9 | 86% | 78–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 144.3 | 53% | 82–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.3 | 147.4 | 87% | 80–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 150.8 | 67% | 63–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 157.2 | 65% | 79–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.