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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama State
|
+17.3 | 167.7 | 90% | 91–93 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+7.5 | 152.9 | 77% | 91–72 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Rutgers
|
-2.7 | 156.8 | 38% | 75–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.4 | 142.9 | 48% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
East Texas A&M
|
-3.1 | 140.0 | 38% | 83–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
LSU New Orleans
|
-8.7 | 149.2 | 16% | 97–83 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Northwestern State
|
-7.0 | 132.7 | 23% | 92–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+5.7 | 126.8 | 65% | 83–73 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Coppin State
|
-9.2 | 133.3 | 17% | 85–77 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama A&M
|
+11.1 | 140.5 | 87% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
+3.9 | 135.8 | 71% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
-1.7 | 145.2 | 45% | 84–80 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Houston
|
+14.9 | 125.7 | 88% | 46–65 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Texas Southern
|
+1.0 | 135.6 | 49% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Minnesota
|
-9.6 | 142.5 | 19% | 89–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Morgan State
|
-2.7 | 154.6 | 42% | 98–102 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+0.5 | 148.9 | 51% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.