Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–13 on winners spread MAE 8.2 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ Iowa State +5.3 140.0 73% 57–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +5.6 145.1 73% 75–79 ✓
UAB @ South Florida +0.8 156.5 55% 92–83 ✗
California @ North Carolina +12.5 154.4 86% 53–79 ✓
NC State @ Virginia Tech -2.2 135.2 41% 76–79 ✗
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +13.0 134.5 86% 49–63 ✓
Massachusetts @ Fordham +1.7 150.2 54% 120–118 ✗
Duquesne @ George Washington +6.7 136.0 74% 73–65 ✗
George Mason @ Dayton +5.2 132.2 67% 67–59 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +3.3 141.4 65% 73–51 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -1.1 139.2 46% 73–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +3.1 137.6 63% 82–86 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +10.0 135.6 80% 77–82 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State -0.2 153.1 46% 120–113 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +6.9 138.1 74% 59–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.4 135.9 75% 58–76 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +0.4 149.9 50% 81–83 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -4.7 161.9 28% 75–74 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +3.9 142.1 69% 70–73 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +16.1 134.3 90% 57–70 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan State +8.8 150.6 84% 85–90 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane +0.8 153.4 51% 65–80 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -11.2 136.7 15% 77–58 ✓
Georgia @ Tennessee +10.4 131.5 81% 56–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +11.1 126.5 85% 54–70 ✓
Utah @ TCU +3.9 139.7 69% 73–65 ✗
Murray State @ UIC +1.0 141.3 57% 93–97 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +10.7 156.3 83% 65–118 ✓
Georgia State @ Texas State +9.1 146.1 82% 80–94 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +13.0 138.4 86% 62–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Colorado -1.0 132.6 45% 68–62 ✓
SMU @ Virginia -6.4 136.2 29% 54–52 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State -1.9 150.0 48% 70–82 ✗
Rhode Island @ Loyola Chicago -2.5 143.2 39% 77–81 ✗
Illinois State @ Drake +8.3 130.7 79% 62–66 ✓
Omaha @ Denver -5.0 148.9 26% 80–62 ✓
Purdue @ Washington -8.7 142.9 18% 69–58 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma +1.9 152.3 63% 77–73 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -5.7 146.6 36% 62–65 ✗
Maine @ NJIT -8.4 131.3 21% 57–44 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +11.8 151.0 86% 79–76 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany +0.1 154.4 51% 89–79 ✗
Stony Brook @ Delaware +10.8 149.9 85% 74–84 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -14.9 143.1 13% 87–53 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.8 143.2 86% 60–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.