You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–17 on winners spread MAE 8.1 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ Temple -5.5 153.1 32% 81–88 ✗
Michigan @ Minnesota -14.5 146.4 17% 81–84 ✗
High Point @ Longwood -3.1 150.5 36% 80–82 ✗
Binghamton @ Vermont +4.5 131.1 70% 64–72 ✓
Marshall @ James Madison +4.6 141.8 69% 64–67 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +3.3 141.7 66% 88–87 ✗
App State @ Old Dominion -5.4 133.9 27% 62–43 ✓
Charleston @ Campbell -3.9 148.0 32% 67–61 ✓
Elon @ Drexel -0.4 134.3 44% 65–54 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -0.5 149.5 42% 67–64 ✓
Monmouth @ North Carolina A&T -0.1 146.7 43% 72–63 ✓
Hofstra @ Towson +2.3 127.7 56% 60–65 ✓
Northeastern @ UNC Wilmington +4.6 136.3 71% 72–80 ✓
Central Arkansas @ North Florida +9.3 160.7 77% 80–92 ✓
Queens University @ Stetson -6.3 150.3 26% 95–60 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville +0.9 143.6 53% 60–64 ✓
Merrimack @ Quinnipiac +1.5 130.9 59% 76–81 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's +0.4 124.8 45% 56–51 ✗
Niagara @ Fairfield +0.2 135.9 50% 66–70 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider -3.8 137.8 31% 60–66 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Siena +2.6 148.4 63% 75–93 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +8.9 139.3 81% 61–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State +3.0 159.3 69% 69–75 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State +1.3 140.8 57% 61–63 ✓
New Mexico State @ Florida International -2.6 142.5 37% 59–52 ✓
Western Illinois @ Morehead State +5.8 135.5 71% 47–51 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +9.1 132.8 79% 53–77 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +9.4 151.6 80% 69–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +17.0 145.5 89% 63–83 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay -1.8 141.9 45% 90–97 ✗
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -1.4 141.5 39% 85–83 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State -5.1 132.6 33% 57–67 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +11.4 157.2 86% 73–109 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota +9.1 162.6 85% 82–92 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +11.5 141.5 87% 64–71 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State -0.4 137.3 53% 87–80 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +2.2 136.5 58% 77–70 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana +0.9 135.8 52% 73–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +7.9 136.8 76% 63–68 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern -2.5 144.0 41% 74–76 ✗
Rutgers @ Nebraska +7.8 147.7 76% 85–82 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho State +2.0 137.1 60% 67–70 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +1.0 145.8 55% 63–59 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +11.5 141.2 87% 58–88 ✓
UTEP @ Liberty +10.4 136.1 78% 72–70 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal Poly +4.0 150.9 59% 65–54 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +23.5 138.6 91% 62–82 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +4.4 137.7 66% 63–66 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State -14.0 138.6 14% 80–54 ✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount -4.8 147.6 36% 54–57 ✗
Pacific @ Portland +0.2 148.7 55% 81–84 ✓
San Francisco @ Pepperdine -4.0 147.3 32% 80–63 ✓
Washington State @ San Diego -13.2 150.5 15% 65–61 ✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U +8.3 138.8 78% 62–82 ✓
Gonzaga @ Oregon State -3.5 153.1 37% 89–97 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i +0.9 148.9 53% 83–60 ✗
Ohio @ Akron +3.6 159.4 64% 80–92 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.