Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–18 on winners spread MAE 9.1 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +8.9 162.2 82% 61–82 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian +0.4 153.1 49% 81–77 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +4.4 151.7 74% 77–90 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +14.0 153.7 88% 60–83 ✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia +3.9 131.5 69% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Notre Dame -3.4 148.2 35% 97–73 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +10.6 146.1 82% 73–97 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Washington +1.0 136.0 54% 79–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +4.2 141.8 70% 64–73 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State +4.0 136.7 69% 60–62 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +4.6 150.1 69% 79–74 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +4.5 142.0 69% 75–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +2.9 134.5 60% 66–68 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown +3.4 139.9 63% 72–93 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy +2.9 146.9 59% 80–71 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +16.5 152.8 89% 86–91 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +0.8 132.8 53% 49–65 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -6.9 145.5 22% 62–52 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulane +2.5 139.9 66% 81–86 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +0.4 154.5 50% 82–75 ✗
UIC @ Drake +9.5 136.2 81% 57–74 ✓
Furman @ Samford +6.3 148.6 76% 80–72 ✗
UAB @ Rice -0.4 153.7 45% 90–89 ✓
South Florida @ UTSA +2.7 147.5 66% 78–73 ✗
Tulsa @ North Texas +14.9 129.4 86% 44–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso +1.7 142.9 61% 64–66 ✓
Bradley @ Illinois State -1.0 147.5 43% 71–82 ✗
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +7.2 143.7 77% 60–56 ✗
St. Thomas @ South Dakota -3.2 164.7 40% 80–85 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +6.4 155.7 79% 77–68 ✗
Omaha @ Kansas City +0.2 143.1 49% 78–66 ✗
Oregon @ Iowa +0.9 158.6 55% 80–78 ✗
UL Monroe @ Texas State +10.9 142.1 86% 63–80 ✓
Arkansas @ Auburn +14.6 154.1 88% 60–67 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri +2.5 174.8 56% 98–110 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -9.6 139.9 22% 82–58 ✓
UCF @ Oklahoma State +1.2 155.5 59% 95–104 ✓
Miami @ Florida State +10.6 152.1 83% 66–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State -12.9 158.0 15% 84–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver +2.7 150.3 66% 60–71 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +13.5 153.2 87% 57–105 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +1.9 145.7 65% 78–86 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +22.9 138.2 91% 66–79 ✓
Rutgers @ Washington +2.0 149.4 56% 89–85 ✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion -3.0 144.4 40% 81–77 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +4.9 157.7 72% 79–98 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +9.8 139.6 83% 60–79 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +9.5 147.2 75% 70–49 ✗
Maine @ UAlbany -1.5 136.3 45% 68–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +8.9 136.3 80% 74–79 ✓
Drexel @ Delaware +0.5 146.0 49% 78–74 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -8.1 159.3 21% 74–80 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.