Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -2000 TLSA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +19 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -17.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -15.7 (+3.3) | 127.2 (-20.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -16.0 (+3.0) | 126.9 (-19.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -14.3 (+4.7) | 129.7 (-22.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -14.9 (+4.1) | 129.4 (-22.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 84 UNT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | TLSA 82 – 66 UNT |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNT 72 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UNT 77 – 59 TLSA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UNT 68 – 55 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-9 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#75) | -6.3 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#63) | -1.11 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#65) | -1.29 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#31) | 0.425 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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