I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–22 on winners spread MAE 9.7 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNC Asheville @ Radford +1.9 147.5 67% 53–77 ✓
Stonehill @ Wagner -1.1 126.2 43% 57–63 ✗
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne -0.2 152.2 47% 81–76 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst -0.7 141.0 44% 60–65 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Chicago State -11.8 137.2 13% 81–75 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont -1.8 140.3 43% 55–59 ✗
Georgia State @ James Madison +8.8 147.5 80% 63–83 ✓
Louisiana @ Troy +13.7 134.6 86% 72–69 ✗
Charleston @ Northeastern +0.8 149.2 49% 73–62 ✗
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T -5.7 138.7 29% 50–53 ✗
Towson @ Elon +1.4 134.0 54% 63–69 ✓
Monmouth @ Hofstra +4.6 132.9 65% 68–62 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson -11.1 143.9 16% 83–80 ✓
Austin Peay @ Queens University +5.7 146.9 74% 92–78 ✗
UTEP @ Kennesaw State +2.9 142.6 64% 73–83 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +5.3 133.7 69% 61–52 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State -3.2 133.9 30% 80–62 ✓
Central Arkansas @ West Georgia +2.8 146.3 57% 82–71 ✗
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +2.8 143.2 64% 83–78 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +7.6 150.7 78% 76–95 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Southern Miss +5.3 138.5 65% 87–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +6.0 146.2 75% 63–75 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida -0.2 154.5 47% 73–77 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.9 140.2 71% 59–75 ✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock +9.7 132.6 80% 93–92 ✗
USC @ Maryland +12.1 153.9 87% 71–88 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +2.0 143.0 59% 66–71 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +11.6 141.6 87% 66–87 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana +2.2 134.8 56% 63–54 ✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic +5.4 153.7 70% 75–68 ✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State +5.5 133.7 62% 80–77 ✗
Portland State @ Idaho State +0.9 140.3 54% 74–82 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +3.1 136.6 63% 71–66 ✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -7.4 143.1 25% 79–77 ✓
Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky +5.5 154.5 69% 78–62 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +4.9 138.6 71% 85–74 ✗
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly -9.8 157.1 16% 81–67 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +8.2 147.0 80% 84–72 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +16.9 141.8 89% 56–86 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +11.4 144.2 87% 66–87 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +17.3 141.1 89% 58–71 ✓
Oregon State @ Pepperdine -7.8 147.1 23% 84–78 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +13.4 142.6 88% 61–76 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +6.9 153.7 77% 69–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.