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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.2 | 141.7 | 62% | 47–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.4 | 147.8 | 89% | 53–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 137.5 | 65% | 65–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 147.5 | 86% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 145.6 | 41% | 75–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 161.7 | 88% | 81–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 143.4 | 84% | 55–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 144.4 | 49% | 78–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.7 | 138.7 | 89% | 49–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 132.9 | 62% | 56–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 151.1 | 54% | 64–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 148.6 | 84% | 49–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 152.4 | 89% | 69–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 149.3 | 82% | 57–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 146.3 | 52% | 75–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 164.6 | 86% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.