Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–18 on winners spread MAE 9.2 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Providence -7.2 148.0 16% 103–98 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +1.5 129.5 58% 78–65 ✗
American University @ Colgate +4.9 148.2 70% 62–64 ✓
Saint Louis @ VCU +0.3 162.9 58% 71–62 ✗
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +3.9 150.8 69% 89–80 ✗
La Salle @ Rhode Island +9.6 130.7 82% 79–72 ✗
George Mason @ Fordham -4.0 129.0 34% 67–58 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's -3.1 147.8 35% 90–97 ✗
East Carolina @ Temple +11.9 140.7 87% 67–75 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +0.3 146.3 44% 83–67 ✗
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.7 142.4 71% 61–80 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +28.2 155.9 91% 49–104 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette -0.9 147.4 51% 65–66 ✗
Miami @ Wake Forest -1.3 150.7 41% 81–77 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia Tech +6.1 148.7 74% 69–68 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +10.3 131.8 82% 55–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +4.1 148.8 67% 77–82 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +14.9 143.9 89% 63–101 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +16.3 145.4 90% 67–81 ✓
Marshall @ James Madison -0.9 150.6 43% 66–64 ✓
Missouri @ Kentucky +12.4 150.2 86% 73–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State +1.6 154.6 54% 53–72 ✓
Missouri State @ Kennesaw State +1.6 144.9 52% 80–90 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State -0.8 144.7 48% 64–71 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.4 142.1 71% 71–69 ✗
Rice @ Wichita State +16.4 144.3 89% 66–64 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +2.8 153.9 64% 76–71 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +7.4 137.1 73% 76–72 ✗
Iowa State @ Baylor -4.7 154.7 21% 70–60 ✓
Illinois State @ Valparaiso -8.0 134.7 20% 71–77 ✗
Southern Illinois @ UIC -3.8 143.9 40% 57–70 ✗
Murray State @ Evansville -10.3 147.3 17% 79–69 ✓
South Florida @ North Texas -3.7 137.1 31% 74–70 ✓
Charlotte @ UTSA -7.7 142.8 19% 74–58 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas State +2.6 160.6 58% 74–86 ✓
Washington @ Purdue +15.1 143.3 87% 73–81 ✓
Kansas State @ Arizona +16.6 158.3 89% 76–101 ✓
Arizona State @ BYU +17.0 156.0 88% 76–104 ✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt +7.6 175.9 74% 90–96 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -4.7 148.6 33% 94–87 ✓
California @ Virginia +9.0 146.3 80% 60–84 ✓
SMU @ Clemson +1.9 144.2 53% 70–74 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +4.9 145.6 70% 66–93 ✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago -6.0 139.2 27% 79–64 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +9.0 159.9 81% 73–85 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas +12.7 155.9 88% 86–99 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Boise State +9.0 138.9 80% 75–58 ✗
Hofstra @ Towson -3.1 130.3 31% 78–67 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.4 137.5 43% 63–70 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +1.8 138.7 61% 77–63 ✗
Maine @ UMBC +8.3 130.5 75% 62–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +13.0 139.9 85% 66–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.