I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–11 on winners spread MAE 10.1 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana @ Michigan State +7.8 141.4 80% 60–81 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville +5.5 153.0 74% 79–70 ✗
Boston College @ Clemson +15.0 132.8 87% 50–74 ✓
Texas A&M @ Tennessee +6.2 158.4 76% 82–87 ✓
UIC @ Northern Iowa +9.4 126.0 79% 69–61 ✗
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago -11.1 141.6 14% 82–74 ✓
Dayton @ Duquesne -3.0 151.4 35% 71–65 ✓
Wisconsin @ Minnesota -0.2 139.3 56% 78–75 ✓
Miami @ Notre Dame -1.3 142.8 49% 81–69 ✓
Massachusetts @ Western Michigan -0.4 150.3 49% 85–82 ✓
Ohio @ Toledo +2.9 152.5 60% 85–101 ✓
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) +17.9 151.9 90% 61–100 ✓
Ball State @ Akron +22.6 151.3 90% 77–87 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +12.3 142.2 86% 74–78 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall -3.3 128.3 40% 69–64 ✓
Bradley @ Evansville -6.5 139.4 28% 94–90 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +12.5 129.3 84% 48–77 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +8.4 130.3 79% 55–57 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas -2.2 146.7 33% 63–84 ✗
Oregon @ Nebraska +13.3 142.0 85% 55–90 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -5.6 167.8 26% 97–82 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma -2.4 151.1 46% 96–79 ✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State -3.1 134.7 36% 69–79 ✗
Baylor @ Oklahoma State +2.7 161.7 70% 94–79 ✗
Grand Canyon @ New Mexico +7.4 137.3 77% 64–87 ✓
Georgetown @ Creighton +10.9 147.1 84% 83–86 ✓
Florida State @ Syracuse +9.4 150.7 83% 86–94 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +9.2 131.8 80% 62–70 ✓
Maryland @ USC +13.2 144.9 85% 71–88 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -3.7 141.2 38% 82–68 ✓
Boise State @ UNLV -3.3 144.4 35% 85–89 ✗
VCU @ Rhode Island -3.4 139.9 38% 84–75 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross +3.6 139.2 61% 75–82 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +5.1 145.1 69% 93–91 ✗
Chattanooga @ Wofford +6.6 147.7 76% 76–67 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -9.3 146.2 19% 68–72 ✗
Iowa @ Purdue +10.3 142.1 79% 72–79 ✓
High Point @ Winthrop -5.8 158.1 31% 75–92 ✗
Butler @ Xavier -2.5 153.8 47% 75–89 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.