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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–1 on winners
spread MAE 11.2
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania
@
Illinois
|
+17.7 | 149.5 | 87% | 70–105 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Georgia
|
+0.9 | 165.7 | 57% | 102–77 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Houston
|
+16.0 | 134.8 | 88% | 47–78 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Gonzaga
|
+18.1 | 149.6 | 89% | 64–73 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Kentucky
|
+2.4 | 152.2 | 66% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Texas Tech
|
+6.6 | 149.7 | 73% | 71–91 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Arizona
|
+22.4 | 143.8 | 89% | 58–92 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Virginia
|
+14.5 | 146.6 | 88% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Iowa State
|
+20.7 | 142.8 | 88% | 74–108 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Alabama
|
+9.4 | 156.4 | 84% | 70–90 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Villanova
|
-2.0 | 145.2 | 42% | 86–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Tennessee
|
+8.3 | 146.8 | 81% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Clemson
|
-1.7 | 133.0 | 41% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
St. John's
|
+9.8 | 131.3 | 82% | 53–79 | ✓ |
UCF
@
UCLA
|
+4.5 | 147.4 | 68% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Purdue
|
+20.3 | 157.6 | 89% | 71–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.