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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–2 on winners
spread MAE 12.5
7 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Campbell
@
The Citadel
|
-0.6 | 131.3 | 48% | 86–58 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Virginia Tech
|
+8.4 | 140.2 | 79% | 67–95 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Virginia
|
+10.4 | 128.4 | 82% | 41–59 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Iowa
|
+0.2 | 156.6 | 47% | 89–80 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
Arkansas State
|
+8.5 | 149.0 | 81% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Evansville
|
+2.0 | 143.2 | 58% | 75–67 | ✗ |
New Mexico State
@
Texas
|
+15.1 | 139.0 | 88% | 67–91 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.