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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–3 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Martin
@
Alabama State
|
+5.7 | 139.5 | 71% | 93–103 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Wright State
|
+7.9 | 144.4 | 78% | 79–88 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Delaware State
|
+4.9 | 138.8 | 68% | 59–71 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Duquesne
|
+1.5 | 132.7 | 51% | 61–56 | ✗ |
Dartmouth
@
Notre Dame
|
+15.4 | 142.4 | 87% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Villanova
|
+23.4 | 152.6 | 91% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
St. John's
|
+15.5 | 157.6 | 89% | 77–99 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+10.9 | 150.4 | 87% | 76–78 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
-4.3 | 149.9 | 35% | 88–67 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
East Carolina
|
+4.7 | 140.4 | 67% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Pittsburgh
|
+17.4 | 149.4 | 88% | 56–96 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Louisville
|
+11.8 | 140.5 | 86% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
UL Monroe
|
+10.7 | 149.6 | 85% | 73–89 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Kentucky
|
+24.6 | 152.3 | 91% | 67–78 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Utah Valley
|
+8.0 | 146.1 | 78% | 57–80 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana
|
-5.2 | 139.6 | 29% | 61–68 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
BYU
|
+18.7 | 151.3 | 90% | 67–95 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
San Diego State
|
+16.7 | 142.1 | 88% | 75–81 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Nevada
|
+7.6 | 138.5 | 75% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.