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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–7 on winners spread MAE 8.9 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Buffalo @ Georgia	+23.2	144.6	91%	49–100	✓
Oakland @ Cleveland State	+1.1	125.7	53%	75–92	✓
Charleston Southern @ North Alabama	+11.3	145.0	86%	69–86	✓
Grambling @ Delaware State	-1.4	139.6	43%	60–73	✗
UC Irvine @ Belmont	-2.7	147.5	35%	92–84	✓
Lipscomb @ Middle Tennessee	+1.3	141.1	58%	65–67	✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State	+2.5	142.4	61%	69–70	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas	+26.0	149.4	91%	62–98	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock	+2.3	132.8	57%	56–60	✓
Bellarmine @ Wyoming	+11.1	143.6	86%	55–92	✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana	+8.8	152.1	84%	75–77	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	+1.9	142.3	58%	79–73	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+4.7	138.6	72%	72–79	✓
South Dakota @ Utah Tech	-1.6	159.3	41%	87–92	✗
Chicago State @ Grand Canyon	+18.9	146.9	91%	51–74	✓
Long Beach State @ Pepperdine	+7.0	138.2	75%	79–76	✗
Merrimack @ Saint Mary's	+13.7	132.3	87%	68–73	✓
Valparaiso @ Western Michigan	+2.5	148.2	60%	76–73	✗
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M	+22.5	138.0	90%	45–77	✓
Norfolk State @ Grambling	-5.9	134.8	29%	76–70	✓
UIC @ Seattle U	+7.1	147.8	77%	79–68	✗
Rider @ Pennsylvania	+1.2	130.9	52%	66–79	✓
Delaware State @ Alabama State	+2.3	149.4	61%	83–80	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.