And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.1 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +8.3 149.6 81% 55–96 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah +7.2 145.9 76% 62–83 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +0.1 138.5 51% 78–88 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.6 141.0 58% 85–84 ✗
Nevada @ Fresno State -11.5 148.3 15% 77–66 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -11.8 144.3 17% 74–65 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar +5.5 128.4 72% 72–63 ✗
Villanova @ St. John's +7.0 148.2 78% 68–80 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne +11.0 147.0 87% 67–90 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook -6.0 138.5 26% 70–66 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +3.3 150.4 65% 54–77 ✓
Alabama @ Texas A&M +0.2 162.3 48% 94–88 ✗
Indiana @ Iowa +6.0 156.6 71% 60–85 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +4.4 143.6 69% 53–58 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +5.9 141.3 75% 77–69 ✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +4.9 139.5 69% 68–71 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -1.9 150.9 43% 75–72 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas +11.5 168.9 86% 104–119 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts -2.1 157.7 39% 79–83 ✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech -2.0 133.4 40% 74–79 ✗
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +4.8 161.8 71% 95–90 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah +1.2 150.2 57% 68–73 ✓
Washington State @ Gonzaga +13.6 159.8 87% 75–88 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +7.6 147.2 78% 79–81 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +2.9 132.6 62% 54–58 ✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP +5.1 140.7 75% 85–57 ✗
Baylor @ Arizona State -1.2 141.6 44% 72–66 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.7 144.6 41% 90–94 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +4.2 140.6 70% 60–52 ✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego -14.6 134.8 13% 103–56 ✓
Oregon State @ Pacific -11.4 141.8 16% 91–55 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U +6.8 136.9 78% 64–66 ✓
UCF @ Arizona +15.3 159.5 89% 80–88 ✓
Michigan State @ Northwestern -2.1 140.1 36% 78–68 ✓
Nebraska @ Purdue +6.1 139.9 72% 68–104 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +8.4 148.0 80% 66–91 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +5.0 134.6 70% 68–65 ✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.8 148.9 67% 75–71 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut +6.9 127.8 75% 54–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona -1.5 136.8 42% 63–62 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Canisius -6.1 130.7 23% 62–49 ✓
Washington @ Michigan +15.7 151.3 89% 75–91 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne +2.3 138.0 60% 63–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State -4.7 132.9 27% 68–52 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris +0.6 145.4 55% 72–75 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +8.6 134.7 82% 51–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Merrimack +5.0 140.1 72% 62–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +6.0 144.9 75% 71–73 ✓
West Virginia @ Colorado -1.9 134.9 41% 78–70 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa +0.7 144.4 51% 63–69 ✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina -6.7 146.3 25% 82–85 ✗
Oregon @ Penn State +0.3 151.9 49% 82–81 ✗
UAB @ Florida Atlantic +5.1 162.1 73% 81–76 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +5.0 131.8 70% 58–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.