Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | LT +100 LIB -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -3.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -0.8 (+5.8) | 136.0 (+17.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -2.0 (+7.0) | 133.4 (+19.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -2.4 (+7.4) | 135.5 (+17.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -2.8 (+7.8) | 134.7 (+18.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | LT 76 – 71 LIB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LIB 72 – 56 LT |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIB 77 – 53 LT |
| Feb 11, 2024 | LIB 65 – 62 LT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | LT 80 – 76 LIB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#143) | 8.1 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#111) | 1.82 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#123) | 2.78 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#108) | 0.561 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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