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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–11 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Presbyterian
@
High Point
|
+12.9 | 147.0 | 88% | 66–77 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
Wichita State
|
+5.2 | 146.7 | 72% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Northern Iowa
@
Southern Illinois
|
-4.2 | 144.3 | 34% | 49–73 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
Idaho
|
+3.3 | 145.4 | 66% | 76–83 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+11.7 | 152.7 | 87% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Lipscomb
|
+16.5 | 137.4 | 90% | 60–88 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Long Beach State
|
+4.7 | 135.5 | 69% | 83–67 | ✗ |
California Baptist
@
Abilene Christian
|
-2.5 | 135.7 | 41% | 60–54 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Marist
|
+8.9 | 130.4 | 81% | 64–57 | ✗ |
Western Kentucky
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+5.1 | 148.7 | 73% | 57–71 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Liberty
|
+6.3 | 133.9 | 73% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Boston College
|
-16.0 | 139.8 | 14% | 88–63 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
San Diego State
|
+10.4 | 130.5 | 85% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Idaho State
|
+1.4 | 142.9 | 58% | 62–86 | ✓ |
Portland State
@
Northern Arizona
|
+1.6 | 140.1 | 58% | 80–69 | ✗ |
Sacramento State
@
Northern Colorado
|
+14.1 | 141.1 | 89% | 64–68 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Seton Hall
|
-12.1 | 138.4 | 15% | 79–51 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
UC Riverside
|
-6.6 | 139.9 | 26% | 81–85 | ✗ |
Southern Utah
@
Seattle U
|
+6.9 | 141.4 | 78% | 52–75 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+14.7 | 135.4 | 88% | 64–88 | ✓ |
Denver
@
St. Thomas
|
+14.6 | 152.4 | 90% | 62–74 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Texas A&M
|
+9.3 | 146.7 | 82% | 57–68 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Gonzaga
|
+12.4 | 162.6 | 86% | 103–99 | ✗ |
BYU
@
Utah
|
+1.4 | 147.0 | 59% | 72–73 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Weber State
|
+0.5 | 137.9 | 53% | 80–71 | ✗ |
San Diego
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+10.1 | 138.6 | 85% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Irvine
|
+16.6 | 153.3 | 90% | 71–101 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Pepperdine
|
-11.7 | 137.6 | 15% | 74–50 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
San Francisco
|
+1.6 | 143.0 | 59% | 70–81 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Hawai'i
|
+3.6 | 142.6 | 68% | 70–81 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Michigan State
|
+0.5 | 156.0 | 54% | 78–80 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Maryland
|
+9.0 | 146.9 | 81% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Temple
|
+5.3 | 148.0 | 76% | 77–80 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+5.7 | 147.5 | 75% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Green Bay
|
-5.7 | 143.0 | 25% | 73–69 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Michigan
|
+11.8 | 149.2 | 86% | 76–80 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Massachusetts
|
+0.4 | 156.0 | 50% | 60–82 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-4.3 | 140.0 | 31% | 73–62 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Charlotte
|
-13.2 | 145.5 | 14% | 77–68 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Milwaukee
|
+5.9 | 142.6 | 75% | 81–79 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Baylor
|
+10.4 | 137.6 | 86% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.