And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–3 on winners spread MAE 8.4 18 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Carolina @ Clemson +5.7 149.2 74% 65–85 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State -3.8 142.3 32% 81–82 ✗
Florida A&M @ Prairie View A&M -0.9 147.6 43% 78–67 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +17.3 128.4 90% 39–86 ✓
East Texas A&M @ McNeese +16.9 134.1 90% 51–67 ✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +6.0 134.2 74% 72–60 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin +1.1 139.4 58% 75–85 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Incarnate Word +8.8 146.4 81% 65–75 ✓
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -5.7 146.8 26% 77–57 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +16.0 154.3 89% 78–94 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Texas Southern +0.8 140.4 51% 80–77 ✗
Grambling @ Alabama A&M -3.3 137.9 36% 72–61 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar +1.9 137.7 60% 56–67 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian -0.5 139.0 49% 69–60 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +14.4 142.7 88% 62–66 ✓
Baylor @ Houston +10.8 138.9 83% 65–76 ✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +12.0 151.7 87% 75–87 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +15.2 145.2 88% 69–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.