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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–12 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
45 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn
@
Vanderbilt
|
-8.4 | 160.1 | 21% | 80–68 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Mississippi State
|
-2.8 | 148.7 | 40% | 81–68 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Kentucky
|
+0.6 | 143.2 | 52% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+2.8 | 149.6 | 64% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
UCF
|
-5.4 | 154.8 | 30% | 77–65 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Cincinnati
|
+5.0 | 138.4 | 71% | 75–85 | ✓ |
BYU
@
West Virginia
|
+3.2 | 136.4 | 67% | 73–69 | ✗ |
UAB
@
East Carolina
|
+0.3 | 153.7 | 53% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Miami
|
-0.6 | 156.7 | 43% | 84–91 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Richmond
|
-2.7 | 135.4 | 38% | 87–80 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Akron
|
+16.6 | 151.3 | 90% | 92–105 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
+4.2 | 156.7 | 70% | 80–92 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Bowling Green
|
-4.2 | 151.4 | 30% | 86–81 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Ball State
|
+3.7 | 146.3 | 65% | 84–86 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+5.4 | 133.6 | 75% | 83–91 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Northern Illinois
|
+0.6 | 145.5 | 49% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Arizona
@
Kansas State
|
-3.4 | 147.7 | 38% | 70–73 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
Saint Louis
|
-2.9 | 131.2 | 38% | 76–74 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+9.7 | 149.5 | 84% | 73–88 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Murray State
|
+1.3 | 147.1 | 58% | 53–63 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Illinois
|
+5.0 | 146.4 | 69% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Little Rock
|
+2.9 | 132.4 | 64% | 57–45 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Marquette
|
+13.7 | 144.8 | 88% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Texas
|
-2.4 | 166.8 | 39% | 103–80 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Texas A&M
|
+6.0 | 136.2 | 73% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Michigan State
|
+10.5 | 144.7 | 84% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Kansas
|
+14.8 | 140.9 | 87% | 59–71 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Creighton
|
+4.2 | 143.0 | 71% | 70–66 | ✗ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Pepperdine
|
-1.0 | 140.1 | 42% | 69–60 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Rice
|
-5.2 | 130.3 | 24% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
SMU
|
+4.0 | 151.7 | 68% | 63–83 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
USC
|
+3.3 | 148.1 | 65% | 67–92 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
UNLV
|
+12.2 | 133.6 | 87% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Utah State
|
+7.6 | 146.7 | 80% | 85–93 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
San José State
|
-6.3 | 135.0 | 24% | 69–66 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Oregon
|
+6.6 | 144.0 | 74% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Saint Mary's
|
+7.6 | 135.0 | 77% | 64–73 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Villanova
|
-3.1 | 137.1 | 36% | 71–73 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Holy Cross
|
+1.4 | 138.7 | 58% | 87–65 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
Western Carolina
|
-11.5 | 137.8 | 15% | 67–76 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Winthrop
|
+2.1 | 151.0 | 62% | 74–78 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Rutgers
|
+2.8 | 156.4 | 65% | 84–73 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-5.1 | 143.3 | 29% | 82–67 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Youngstown State
|
-0.7 | 154.2 | 47% | 71–93 | ✗ |
Canisius
@
Niagara
|
+9.2 | 138.3 | 82% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.