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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth
@
Charleston
|
+6.6 | 144.6 | 75% | 78–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
SE Louisiana
|
+1.8 | 136.3 | 58% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
Santa Clara
|
+14.7 | 154.5 | 87% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Troy
@
James Madison
|
-3.0 | 138.9 | 38% | 79–60 | ✓ |
St. Thomas
@
Omaha
|
-2.4 | 150.6 | 41% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Montana
|
+3.5 | 143.8 | 67% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
San Francisco
|
+5.3 | 151.3 | 70% | 75–86 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Towson
|
+4.6 | 146.5 | 71% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Northwestern State
|
-2.9 | 130.9 | 38% | 63–66 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
Troy
|
-2.2 | 139.3 | 41% | 81–94 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Furman
|
+0.7 | 141.1 | 55% | 92–85 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Robert Morris
|
+2.9 | 140.8 | 62% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Idaho State
|
+0.3 | 138.8 | 51% | 80–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.