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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.9
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.7 | 139.9 | 66% | 70–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.5 | 134.6 | 88% | 59–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 146.9 | 61% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 140.8 | 62% | 80–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 137.5 | 56% | 56–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.7 | 150.8 | 77% | 76–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 135.4 | 30% | 87–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 130.7 | 71% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 143.2 | 33% | 54–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 131.9 | 54% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 138.8 | 52% | 72–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 145.1 | 42% | 82–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 139.0 | 39% | 76–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 146.0 | 54% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 150.6 | 78% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 126.4 | 58% | 57–42 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.2 | 135.4 | 88% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 134.5 | 86% | 46–43 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 142.7 | 65% | 78–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 141.9 | 52% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 149.1 | 59% | 66–62 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.