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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–2 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
UConn
|
+2.6 | 146.6 | 60% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Illinois
|
+3.6 | 160.9 | 64% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Michigan State
|
+15.1 | 149.1 | 87% | 62–87 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Oregon
|
+5.2 | 140.1 | 68% | 52–81 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Chattanooga
|
+0.7 | 152.7 | 53% | 72–87 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Purdue
|
+5.9 | 139.9 | 73% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
George Mason
|
+4.0 | 130.7 | 70% | 75–67 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
St. John's
|
+5.1 | 144.9 | 70% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Michigan
@
Texas A&M
|
-0.6 | 141.8 | 48% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Texas Tech
|
+7.6 | 129.1 | 74% | 64–77 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Auburn
|
+9.7 | 148.9 | 80% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.