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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU
@
Wisconsin
|
+1.4 | 151.7 | 56% | 91–89 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
Houston
|
+4.5 | 138.1 | 66% | 76–81 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Tennessee
|
+4.1 | 132.0 | 67% | 58–67 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Incarnate Word
|
-0.8 | 145.6 | 46% | 85–92 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Florida
|
+7.8 | 149.4 | 78% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Army
|
-7.3 | 145.5 | 24% | 78–83 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
SMU
|
+9.8 | 149.5 | 82% | 85–83 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Duke
|
+9.4 | 140.0 | 81% | 66–89 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Northern Arizona
|
-1.8 | 146.7 | 43% | 85–78 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Kentucky
|
+0.8 | 169.7 | 52% | 75–84 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Alabama
|
+5.2 | 146.4 | 70% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Presbyterian
|
-5.8 | 138.9 | 28% | 78–70 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
North Texas
|
+3.2 | 132.0 | 68% | 63–65 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
San Francisco
|
+8.5 | 140.5 | 78% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Maryland
|
+6.9 | 141.6 | 76% | 71–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.